and some change

Predictions for 2025

Following up on my predictions for 2024, here’s a bunch of predictions for this year. As before, all dollar values inflation-adjusted for start of 2025.

US

National

NYC

Housing

Congestion pricing

  • Remains in place, without significant rollbacks, by the end of the year: 70%
  • I notice reduced traffic volumes in my neighborhood: 10%

Second Avenue Subway

  • Phase 2 construction starts before end of year: 90%
  • Phase 2 budget exceeds $9 billion at some point: 20%
  • Future phases officially cancelled: 10%

California

Housing

HSR

I’ll assess these only if the CAHSR releases a new project update report, with new figures. (I think the next one is scheduled for early this year.) If they don’t by the end of the year, I’ll annul these predictions.

  • P50 estimate of Bakersfield-Merced opening delayed to at least 2034: 60%
    • I consider the “P50 probability envelope” the official estimate, i.e. currently the official estimate is “end of 2033”.
  • Base YOE cost of Bakersfield-Merced rises to or above $33B: 70%
  • Project officially cancelled: 20%
    • I’d consider any change to the project that abandons its current goal of serving SF-LA in <3hrs as cancelling it.

Rest of world

Canada

  • We decide this year to move to Canada: 25%
  • Trudeau resigns PM before the election: 40%
  • A motion of no confidence in Trudeau is introduced: 50%
    • … and he survives it: 20%
  • Conservatives win a plurality of the legislature: 60%

Ukraine

  • Admitted to NATO: 20%
  • Cedes territory to Russia: 30%

China

  • Enters a recognized recession: 10%
  • Formally revokes Hong Kong SAR status: 10%
  • Xi Jinping still in power at end of year: 90%
  • Invades Taiwan: 10%
  • BRICS loses a member: 10%
    • Any of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, or any member that joins during 2025.

Argentina

  • YoY inflation hits <100% at any point during the year: 50%
  • La Libertad Avanza wins a plurality of the seats up for election in the Chamber of Deputies: 70%

Tech

AI

  • OpenAI announces GPT-5: 70%
  • … and it’s available to consumers: 60%
  • OpenAI gets a new CEO: 30%
  • We achieve AGI: 5%

Other

  • Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple are forced via lawsuit to spin off at least one company: 10%
  • At least one company offers widely-available self-driving cars: 30%
  • Twitter files for bankruptcy: 20%
  • Amazon, Google, Apple, or Steam accept Bitcoin: 5%
  • AGDQ 2025 raises at least $2.5M: 60%
  • Apple releases a foldable iPhone: 10%

Pop culture

  • Marvel films will have total revenue over 1.5 billion dollars (international box office): 60%
  • Marvel films will average greater than 650 million in international box office: 40%
  • There are >5 movies with domestic box office >250 million: 25%
  • There are >10 movies with domestic box office >250 million: 10%
  • An A24 movie will win the Best Picture Oscar: 40%
  • Kieran Culkin will win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar: 75%
  • Challengers will win an Oscar: 60%
  • The live action Snow White will make more than 200 million dollars in domestic box office: 60%
  • A streaming service will close down / be merged into another: 30%
    • Max, Peacock, Paramount, Hulu, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, Apple TV+, Mubi
  • The book that spends the longest at the top of the NYT bestseller list is a romance: 60%
  • The highest grossing movie of the year domestically is a sequel or part of an ongoing franchise (like Marvel, with previous entries): 80%

Sports

  • The NFC champion will win the Super Bowl: 40%
  • The Mets will make the playoffs: 50%
  • The Knicks will have a winning season: 70%
  • The Eastern Conference champion will win the NBA finals: 50%
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