Predictions for 2024

Dec 31, 2023

Here’s a bunch of predictions for next year, along with rough probabilities. All dollar values inflation-adjusted for start of 2024.

US

Congestion pricing
- Begins collection by EOY: 70%
- Collects the expected $1b annualized (factoring in discounts): 40%
- I notice reduced traffic volumes in my neighborhood: 30%
Second Avenue Subway
- Phase 2 construction starts before end of year: 50%
- Phase 2 budget exceeds $7 billion at some point: 80%
- Future phases officially cancelled: 10%
California HSR
- P50 estimate of Bakersfield-Merced opening delayed to at least 2034: 60%
  - I consider the “P50 probability envelope” the official estimate, i.e. currently the official estimate is “end of 2033”.
- Base YOE cost of Bakersfield-Merced rises to or above $33B: 50%
- Project officially cancelled: 30%
  - I’d consider any change to the project that abandons its current goal of serving SF-LA in <3hrs as cancelling it.
US enters a recession: 20%
Donald Trump
- Goes to trial before the general election in any of his current cases: 10%
- Wins the Republican primary: 90%
- Wins the general election: 40%

We decide this year to move to Canada: 50%
Ukraine
- Admitted to NATO: 20%
- Cedes territory to Russia: 20%
Labour wins UK elections: 90%
China
- Enters a recognized recession: 40%
- Formally revokes Hong Kong SAR status: 10%
- Xi Jinping leaves power: 10%
- Invades Taiwan: 10%
BRICS loses a member: 70%
- Any of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, or any member that joins during 2024.

OpenAI
- Announces GPT-5: 90%
- Releases GPT-5 for consumer use: 80%
- Gets a new CEO: 50%
We achieve AGI: 5%
Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple are forced via lawsuit to spin off at least one company: 25%
At least one company offers widely-available self-driving cars: 30%
Tesla stops selling a product named “Full Self-Driving”: 40%
Twitter files for bankruptcy: 70%
Amazon, Google, Apple, or Steam accept Bitcoin: 5%